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History Shows Virus Impact Greater After the First Year — Global Variant Snarls Supply Chains — Slows Inventory Rebuild — Inflationary Impact — Consumer Caution Slows Service Industry Return — Impacts Employment Growth — Variant May Delay Fed Tapering or Slow Its Rollout

Date Posted: August 24, 2021
Delta Variant Increases Inflationary Pressures—Supply Chains Snarled Most recently, the growing spread of the COVID-19 Delta Variant forced China to curtail cargo operations at both air and container ports. According to ship operators, global supply chains could remain snarled and not clear up until the first of the year, with the obvious impac…

China—Tech Clamp Down—Why?—How to Invest In China–Now

Date Posted: August 3, 2021
SINO/U.S. TENSIONS CONTINUE TO INCREASE Our earlier Commentary (10/17/2018)  focused on whether the Sino/U.S. trade war would eventually grow into Cold War II.  For some period now, that concern moved to the  back burner for most investors particularly with the recent lack of  Tweets from the White House. Despite that,  movement to a more conf…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 —Grandfather Clock Economics — Fed’s New Framework — Maximizes Employment — a New Fed Chair?

Date Posted: April 12, 2021
Grandfather Clock Economics Over the years, I subscribed to the grandfather clock theory of economics. In effect, the economic and political environment swings from one extreme to the other over some lengthy period of time Roosevelt—During the great depression, the new deal, under FDR, swung the economic and political pendulum to the left. The…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 —Inflation Outlook — the Short and the Long of It — Tax Rate Increases Higher Than Forecast

Date Posted: March 25, 2021
Learning from the Past—Double Digit Inflation—the Sixties and Seventies—Can It Repeat—Guns and Butter The debt financing of the Vietnam war and great society programs followed by the Fed adding fuel to the fire with expansionary monetary policies in 1968 set the basis for the seventies inflationary spiral. Then, in 1971 these so-called “guns an…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 — “What This Economy Needs is A Little Inflation”

Date Posted: February 17, 2021
Needs A Little Inflation My first firm on “the Street” employed the Chief Economist of The Conference Board, the late Al Sommers. During one recession, from behind a cloud of cigar smoke, Al gravelly-voiced out, “what this economy needs is a little inflation.” And, in our current uncertain economic environment, that advice still holds true. Whi…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 — Biden Proposals — Vaccine Rollout Key to Snapback — Limited Multiple Expansion — Focus on Cyclical EPS Growth

Date Posted: January 15, 2021
Vaccine Rollout Key to First Half Growth—Potential New One-Dose Vaccine The speed of reaching broad-based vaccinations will likely determine how fast the economy snaps back. Post-vaccine activity will initially depend importantly on economic momentum pre-vaccine. State funding in the last COVID package plus the new Biden package should accelera…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 – Green Light for Renewable Energy and Battery Driven Vehicles

Date Posted: January 7, 2021
Economics of Renewable Energy Generation More Than Regulations Speed the Shift After quickly reinstating stricter environmental regulations, the Biden administration will likely propose to bring renewable electric generation up to an estimated 80% of power generation by 2035. That would compare to 17% today. Many observers predict that realisti…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 – Green Light for Renewable Energy and Battery Driven Vehicles

Date Posted: January 7, 2021
Economics of Renewable Energy Generation More Than Regulations Speed the Shift After quickly reinstating stricter environmental regulations, the Biden administration will likely propose to bring renewable electric generation up to an estimated 80% of power generation by 2035. That would compare to 17% today. Many observers predict that realisti…

Looking Beyond COVID-19 — the Years Ahead — Disruption and Opportunity

Date Posted: December 2, 2020
Virus Third Wave Unlike more regional virus waves during the spring and summer, the present third wave impacts the country as a whole. Past experience shows the U.S. seems to lag western Europe virus activity by 3-4 weeks. With confirmed case growth beginning to decline in Western Europe, the U.S. will hopefully experience a similar decline by …

Looking Beyond COVID—19—Observations—Post-Election Morning

Date Posted: November 4, 2020
Observations—Post-Election Morning With some trepidation, we issue this Commentary Wednesday morning post-election day. With obvious risk, current trends this morning suggest former Vice-President Biden ahead but the outcome remains uncertain. At the same time, the Senate will likely remain narrowly in Republican hands. No matter which presiden…