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Insights

Investment Views of Two Veteran Market and Economic Observers

Date Posted: July 1, 2017
Recently I attended a lunch with several of my colleagues that formerly worked in the Merrill Lynch global research department that I headed. Below, I briefly outline my notes from presentations by two veteran market and economic observers from my former department. Overall, both projected a cautious outlook for the financial markets and economy…

Bloomberg Magazine Interview with Andy Melnick, Larry Chiarello and Steven Turi

Date Posted: June 22, 2017
As the Fed tapers its asset purchases, correlations among shares may ratchet down from historic highs and provide opportunities for active managers.

The Fed – Strong Employment Driving The Move – Inflation Not Their Worry – What Is Their Real Worry?

Date Posted: June 1, 2017
The Fed – What Next? Most observers expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the Fed Funds rate another 25 bps at its June 13-14th meeting. The real question — what then? The strength of the labor market gives the FOMC sufficient underpinning to make further moves. At the same time, many economists express concern about the inab…

The Revolution of Behavioral Finance Part-2

Date Posted: May 26, 2017
The Father of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Insight of Behavioral Finance. A Special Interview with Dr. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics  Part 2: The Revolution of Behavioral Finance

The Humble Beginning Part-1

Date Posted: May 26, 2017
The Father of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Insight of Behavioral Finance. A Special Interview with Dr. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics Part 1: The Humble Beginning.

Congress And The Trump Bump

Date Posted: May 22, 2017
Positive economic expectations for proposed tax and infrastructure legislation took a decided reversal last week. The reversal resulted from various issues that would likely undermine the administration’s ability to push through this legislation—particularly tax reform. Investors look to these proposals to provide additional stimulus for economi…

Economic Tone Better Than The First Quarter GDP Headline Number Suggests

Date Posted: May 2, 2017
The “Advance” estimate for first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) showed an annual growth rate of 0.7%.  More importantly, real final sales—very simply, what passes over the sales counter—grew 1.6%.  In our opinion, this stronger figure provides a better sense of the economic tone than the GDP headline number.    In effect, reducing invent…

First Quarter GDP Expectations – Will It Be The Usual?

Date Posted: April 25, 2017
As of this date, estimates for first quarter gdp growth range from o.5% by the atlanta fed to 2.1% for the new york fed.   Economists I follow project first quarter gdp growth in the low one percent range.  In past years, first quarter gdp growth generally disappointed. If you recall, last year’s preliminary estimate of first quarter gdp growth …

Hope Is Not A Strategy – But There Is Hope

Date Posted: April 13, 2017
Can They Ever Compromise? Before leaving for Key West about a fortnight ago, house republican leaders were scrambling to pull in the necessary votes to reform ObamaCare. That effort failed. In comments (3/16/2017) at that time, I described the war between the two parties as resembling the old Kentucky mountain feud between the Hatfields and the …

The Change

Date Posted: April 7, 2017
The first quarter ended with investors returning to reality. since the election much enthusiasm existed that the administration and congress could deliver major new legislation dealing with healthcare, tax reform and infrastructure investment.  with the initial failure of healthcare reform, investors reduced their expectations for tax reform and…