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The Times They Are A Changing

Date Posted: January 19, 2017
It would be difficult to describe 2016 as anything but unpredictable. For all of the year’s ups and downs, investors head into 2017 with more optimism than we’ve seen in a number of years. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment ended the year at 98.2 up 6% for the year leading to the highest level of the Sentiment Index since Jan…

The Dismal Employment Report

Date Posted: January 18, 2017
The Job Report Economists projected that September would show a gain of about 200,000 payroll jobs. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (B.L.S.) released an employment report showing a (pick your word) dismal, grim, or terrible – all used in various headlines – gain of only 142,000 jobs . And of that total gain, the private economy generated…

China And The Global Market Meltdown

Date Posted: January 18, 2017
The Morning After – The Market Hangover These comments are being written the morning after the Dow Jones index declined over 500 points or a loss of 3.1% for the day. At the same time, the Standard & Poor ’s 500 stock index fell 3.2%. Investment observers placed much of the blame on a potential economic slowdown in China and the Asian emergi…

Trump, Fiscal Policy, And the Yield Curve

Date Posted: January 17, 2017
Trump Fiscal Policy President Trump, working with a Republican House and Senate, should see fairly rapid progress for two major areas of his platform—tax reform and infrastructure spending. Tax reform will likely show a more immediate stimulus to the economy while the economic boost from infrastructure spending would not likely show up for some …

What About Long-Term Interest Rates?

Date Posted: September 5, 2015
The President’s Council of Economic Advisers (C.E.A.) recently published a study, “Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey,” which examined the extended decline in long-term U.S. interest rates. We thought it of importance to review its conclusions, particularly in light of the changing global economic forces. Those forces could begin to reverse the …